Where We Could Finish After Round 18

The Phoenix have finished the NBL23 season with a 15 win and 13 loss record. They hold the best home winning record in the league with 11 and 3, while they went 4 and 9 away.

(South East Melbourne Phoenix hold the best home record in the league, winning 11 out of 14 games at home)

Wracked by injuries to their starters, the team's record when all five are in the lineup is 12 and 4; without those injuries, the Phoenix may have found themselves sitting back preparing to watch the NBL's first-ever play in the tournament.

Instead, after a covid outbreak in the New Zealand Breakers camp in round 12 which saw their game postponed, a schedule change saw the Phoenix play the Breakers’ opponent for that round in the Bullets, effectively moving Phoenix’s round 18 game forward to fill the void.

The Phoenix are now in the bizarre position of watching the NBL23’s final round from the sidelines as they sit in 6th position after playing all of their scheduled 28 games for the season.

The Phoenix could finish anywhere from 4th to 7th, depending on the results in the season's final round.

(Having played all 28 regular season games, the Phoenix must wait on other results from the final round of the season to know where they will finish in the standings.)

For those who love percentages, the Phoenix have a 12.5% chance of finishing 4th, a 37.5% chance of finishing 5th or 6th and a 12.5% chance of finishing 7th.

According to @statsman74 on Twitter, the following needs to happen for the Phoenix to finish 4th: 

To finish 5th, Perth wins one of their last two; if Perth wins both, Phoenix likely finishes 6th.

For the Phoenix to miss, Perth must win both games, and MU must beat Adelaide by 38+ points to make up percentage.

Again according to @statsman74 on Twitter, the margins look like this;

"If Adelaide scores 70, MEL needs 108; 80 from the 36ers means MU must score 119 and 90 will require 129. Keep in mind that throughout #NBL23, the average score per team is currently 87.98, with SYD at 95.65 and 2nd to 8th, the lowest is 85.11 - so hoping for scores for in the 110s and scores against in the 70s are quite difficult to achieve."

If that's as clear as mud, make sure you follow @coachduncanberg and @statsman74, who are updating all the machinations after each game.

Phoenix Media (30/01/2023)